The Magic of 100 Baggers

paper money in tilt shift lens

I recently listened to Mohnish Pabrai’s talk that he gave to the students of NMIMS, a prominent college in Mumbai. Pabrai spoke about how he would have done much better in his investment career (which by the way is already in the top 1% percentile) if he would have just focused on the getting more multibaggers in his portfolio.

If you are focused on finding the potential 10xers or 100xers – you don’t need to keep looking for 50 cent dollar bills and such.

The other good part is you don’t need too many. Over a longish career if you get even 1-2:100 baggers – you are going to have one hell of a CAGR on your portfolio.

Now I’ve been an avid fan on Mohnish and have been practicing value investing for more than a decade now. I’ve had my share of multibaggers ranging from 2x to 10x . No 100xers for me atleast of now.  In contrast however, my late father though- never read any books on value investing, no finance education ( he was a high school teacher) and despite almost everything he invested in going to zero (Uti Mastershare, corporate FDs in the mid 90s), he still came home with a 100 bagger and a better CAGR.  Just one of his investments which was left untouched for over 2-3 decades effectively turned a hundred bagger and some. 5000 INR invested in the mid 80s in Vam Organics (now Jubilant Industries) returned over 5 lakhs until the mid 2000s. We sold some of it for a down payment on a house in 2004. If we count the returns on house which we recently sold at a 10x – as a family we really had a1000x multiple on that investment between equity and real estate. The proceeds from that house are part of the equity in my new home. Who knows what it will be worth when my daughter inherits the same.

That’s the power of compounding.

The point I’m trying to make here is that its possible to get 100 baggers just with a bit of luck and some long term patience.

Imagine what’s possible with a better guidance, words of wisdom and a much more disciplined approach.

This is where I would recommend a couple of books that you should have on your reading list 

100 to 1 in the Stock Market: A Distinguished Security Analyst tells How to make more of your Investment Opportunities.

Thomas Phelps

100 baggers – Stocks that return 100-to-1 and How to find them

Christopher Mayer

Coincidentally both these books were recommended by Prof. Sanjay Bakshi . The first one by Thomas Phelps wasn’t available in Ondia at the time and the book was also out of print. I still remember this as the most expensive book I’ve ever purchased. I managed to get this on Amazon US for an effective price of 9000 INR + . It was well worth the price though.

The most recent book by Chris Mayer was essentially a follow up to Phelps’ book and also a very good contemporary read. Reading both of these will give you a fairly decent idea of the ingredients that go into the making of a 100 bagger concoction.

Ofcourse there is a great degree of luck when we are crystal gazing in this manner – but there is a little bit of science that helps in the art of stock picking . Even if you don’t esnd up with a 100 bagger – I am pretty confident that if you follow the principles laid out, you will have your share of 2-10xers at the very least.

Few excerpts from the books are below

#3 Lower Multiples Preferred

Let’s say you pay 50 times earnings for a company that generated $1 in earnings last year. Think what you need to happend to make it a 100-bagger. You need earnings to go up a hundred fold and you need the price earnings ratio to stay where it is at 50. If the price earnings raio fall to 24 , then you need earnings to rise 200-fold.

Don’t make investing so hard

Excerpt from Chapter 15 of Chris’ Mayer Book.

Real growth is as simple and certain as arithmetic if the book value of a stock is increased by retained earnings while the rate of return on invested capital remains constant. To illustrate, let us assume our company has a book value of $10 a share, with no senior securities, and is earning 15 percent on its invested capital. In this example, book value and invested capital per share are the same. Let us assume further that our company pays no dividends.

At the end of the first year per share book value will be $10 plus 15 percent of $10, or $ 11.50. At the end of the fifth year book value will be $20, and at the end of the tenth year $40. If our company can continue to earn at the same rate on this invested capital, its earnings in ten years will be four times the starting figure.

If our company pays out a third of its earnings in dividends, the amount plowed back each year will be 10 percent per share book value. At that rate it will take nearly fifteen years, instead of ten, for book value and earnings to quadruple.

Earning at 15 percent and paying no dividends, our stock would grow one hundredfold in thirty-three years. Earning 15 percent and paying a third of earnings in dividends, out stock would take more than forty-eight years to multiply its assets and earnings by 100.

Excerpt from Thomas Phelps’ book

Both these books are a treasure trove of valuable information and I would highly recommend you add them to your reading list.

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The Power of Zooming out

photography of person holding black camera lens

If you are a human, odds are you are bound to make mistakes in your life. When stuff like this happens, it can be very debilitating . You feel inferior, insecure and sometimes just plain stupid. “Worry” becomes the predominant emotion at this time.

What has helped me in such situations is the gift of perspective and zooming out of the situation. I learned this trick from Robin Sharma. When we are too close too a situation- it seems a huge disaster that we are unable to overcome. But when we try to zoom out and look at things from a distance, we are able to see it for what its worth.

Here are a few questions to help you put things in perspective.

Did someone die? [ Extreme Gravity of the Impact]

Will this matter 10 years from now? [Extreme Distance from the event

When you look at your mistakes from these lenses and try to compare it – either with a serious impact such as death Or a really long time perspective- you start to see that the thing you are bothered about seems very tiny in comparison.

I use the time distance question a lot and if something its not going to matter in ten years, then its only a matter of time before it passes.

So next time you make a mistake or are worried about a situation, try Zooming out, comparing them from a different lens and pretty soon you will return to a much better mental space.

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The Tale of Two Audibles

black corded headphones with colorful books in between

One of the most common excuses that I have heard is that people no longer have time for books. In their busy schedule  – it is extremely difficult to make time for books. This is where advise from Jim Rohn, Andy Robbins and Robin Sharma came to my immense rescue. The advice was

“Turn your car into a university”.

Without sounding elitist – the underlying message was to maximise your commute time (car or no car). Ofcourse things have changed post pandemic with work from home limiting the commute days. However on the days that you do, this is very sound advice.

Here is how I put this into action. I discovered Audible. Even outside of Audible – I spent on audio courses by Jim Rohn, Darren Hardy, Robin Sharma and several other personal development gurus. Success magazine was another valuable resource. The CDs in the magazine every month was a valuable treasure trove. Much before the podcast revolution took over those CDs were a regular in my car. Audible gave me access to a global library of options.

What worked for me was a two pronged strategy.

#1 : Mornings were reserved for serious stuff – motivational, personal development, self help etc.

#2 : Evenings were meant for fiction. There was nothing better than a murder mystery or thriller for the evening ride. It kept evenings light and reached home in a much better mood. I did start off with serious stuff in the evening too – but soon realised I didn’t have the energy or attention span. The better idea was to let yourself wind down in the evening.

On 5 day commute days ( I had anywhere between 10-20 hours) available. I was able to finish at least 2 full length novels in a week or perhaps two.

Simple idea to execute. The ROI on such investment was definitely significant.  This was my two audio book story.

Give it a try and I am sure you will no longer be frustrated on long commutes.

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Run Towards Your Fear

person running on dirt road

I learnt the concept of running towards ones fear from a beautiful story that I heard from Robin Sharma. It’s a simple story, but I keep coming back to it from time to time whenever I catch myself fearful of doing something or facing a tough situation.

There was once a wise Master who was walking through the gardens of a monastery. As the monks took the Master on a walk through the beautiful gardens, they passed through a section where there were three large ferocious looking dogs who were bound by chains. The monks quietly passed by and kept walking on showing the wise Master, the other beautiful flowers and plants that were adorning the garden. As they reached the other end of the garden, suddenly they heard loud howling and barking and when the Master and the other monks turned around to see, they were horrified – the wild dogs had broken through their chains and were running towards them.

While all the other monks were still gaping for breath, they suddenly witnessed another puzzling sight. The Master had starting running towards the direction of the dogs with amazing speed. The dogs had never seen anything like this. They were used to being the aggressors but seeing the Master running towards them, they quickly stopped barking, slowed down and turned back to where they came from.

The moral of the story was when you run towards your fears instead of away from them – you are taking away the power of fear and you realise that what you originally feared didn’t bother you at all once you had taken the action to face it.

I’ve listened to this story time and again on Robin’s podcast and this has become a go to hack for me whenever im stuck with inaction and afraid to face a difficult scenario.

So next time you come across a similar situation – Try Running directly towards your fears and see how quickly you can gain control of your emotions and become a stronger individual mentally.

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Book Review: The Little Book of Lykke – The Danish search for the World’s happiest people

The Little Book of Lykke

Hygge got me hooked on to Meik Wiking and the whole Danish philosophy of happiness. This book – The Little Book of LYKKE, the Danish search for the World’s happiest people – was a perfect Segway into the world of Lykke ( pronounced : “Luuh Kah”).

Happiness > most things in life

I keep coming back to this book from time to time. Everytime I do, I keep wondering: Why do I love this book so much? Perhaps, I am at a stage in life where peace and happiness are a topmost priority for me. Any thing that helps me improve my happiness quotient is something that piques my interest immediately.

The author Meik Wiking is the CEO of the Happiness Research Institute based in Copenhagen Denmark and he and his colleagues spend their days discovering happiness secrets. (I secretly envy their jobs) This book talks about 6 aspects of life that are connected to our happiness. What I really like about his book apart from the fact that is a visual delight (on the same lines as the Little Book of Hygge)  is a recurring summary section called “Happiness Tips” spread across the book. I keep revisiting the book on a frequent basis just to read some of the tips.

Can you truly escape the Hedonic Treadmill?

man in black suit sitting on chair beside buildings
Photo by Andrea Piacquadio on Pexels.com

Its tough to do so. The next best thing is to expect it. Here is an interesting extract from the chapter on Money

Happiness Tip: Expect the hedonic treadmill

“Take time to enjoy the journey towards your goal while also being mindful that achieving your goal will not fulfil you completely.

Expect and understand that reaching our goal might make you happy – but only for a while. We continuously raise the bar for what we want or feel we need in order to be happy. Getting your book published will make you happy for a while and then you adjust your ambition to hitting the Sunday Times bestseller list, becoming a global phenomenon. I speak from personal experience.

I think we are yet to find the one thing that will permanently quench our thirst when it comes to ambition. So perhaps we need to consider how to turn the idea of the pursuit of happiness into the happiness of the pursuit.  (emphasis added by me)People on a quest for something they find meaningful- whether that is building a boat or growing a tomato – tend to be happier; they know that happiness is the by-product of the process and not a pot of gold at the finish line.

This one line encapsulates the spirit of the book for me. Turning the pursuit of happiness into the happiness of the pursuit is such a liberating idea.

Expectation makes the heart grow fonder

I’m sure a lot of us have an experience of planning a trip. Have you ever wondered that the whole planning for the trip and anticipation of the vacation brings you as much joy if not more than the actual trip. Turns out it’s a genuine thing. Once again it’s such a simple idea to integrate into your day to day life.

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Mentors on Investing and Life Lessons

vintage typewriter and telephone on the table

“Have coffee with Gandhi” – This is a statement that I’ve heard so often from Robin Sharma. He reinforced the idea on vicarious learning through reading autobiographies and following the works of great authors and wise folks.

I’ve been influenced by several authors, investors and wise folks. This is a gratitude post and while I current have a few names listed here, I may add the names of more mentors in the future. I cant stress enough on the benefit of vicarious learning. This is like getting an ivy league education for the cost of an internet connection.

Here are a few of my college professors in the University of Life. You can have conversations with them through their books, blogs, podcasts and interviews. Go forth and seek your masters.

Personal development

Investors

Curators par Excellence

May be a tad unfair to call them curators as they are all know authors in their own right. But what I have loved most about these mentors, that through their blogs and podcasts, they have introduced me to whole new universe of great books and wise leaders.

And last but not the least  – Naval Ravikant who is in a league of his own and I would find it hard to classify him into a category. Check out his famous podcast interviews with Tim Ferriss and Shane Parrish – you will be enthralled.

I’d be happy to hear names of mentors who inspired you. Leave your feedback in the comments.

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The Most Important thing – Book Review

There are multiple styles of investing in the stock markets. Different books teach you the basics of different styles. You need to find a style which matches your personality and skills. For me- this style was value investing and the voice that resonated very strongly with me was Howard Marks.

This book – “The Most important Thing – Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor” by Howard Marks is in my list of the top 3 investment books that have influenced me.

I first came across Howard marks through his memos. Mark’s memos are one investment document that I look forward to devouring every quarter. The wisdom to words ratio of his memos are par excellence. His first book – The Most Important Thing – is by far one of the best “investment philosophy” books that I have read.

This is not a How-To book though. There are others by Peter Lynch, Pat Dorsey to name a few authors that do a much better job on teaching how to pick a good stock.

Early on in my investing career I read such books and with a mix of skill and luck (honestly more luck than skill) managed to identify many good investments. However when I look back now- I realise despite picking so many winners -my overall portfolio outcome left a lot to be desired.

Howard’s book in my view is crucial to building the  “investment framework”- without which stock picking skills are useless.

This is where Howard’s book helps fit in the missing pieces. It provided the foundation and fertile soil allowing my stock picking skills to bloom into a garden of flowers.

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The Most Important Thing

There are 21 chapters in this book. I would classify them in the following categories

  • The Skill of Stock Picking: Superior insight, Having a sense of value and understanding the relationship between price and value.
  • Risk: Understanding, Controlling and Mitigating Risk
  • Timing: Not in the literal sense  – but an understanding of market cycles and where we stand in the cycle (this was the subject of his second book – Mastering the Market Cycle)
  • Reasonable Expectations: Being reasonable about finding bottoms and being satisfied with “Good-enough” returns.

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Stock Picking Skills

I think most investors start at #1 – understanding value and trying to pick winners. If you are not good or atleast above average at this – the rest do not matter in my view. You would be best suited to stick to passive investing through a good mix of mutual funds and prudent asset allocation and rebalancing.

The opposite is also true. Having good stock picking ability without understanding risk or being reasonable is also a disaster waiting to happen. This is where I was as an investor before I encountered Howard . I had no idea about the risk I was taking to achieve returns. I did not have a portfolio allocation approach. “Reasonable expectations” was meant for the oldies, I used to say with youthful exuberance.

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Risk

Here is how Howard Marks defines Risk


“Risk Means uncertainty about which outcome will occur and about the possibility of loss when the unfavorable ones do.”

This paragraph hit home the value of risk mitigation for me.

“Since there are more good years in the markets than bad years, and since it takes bad years for the value of risk control to become more evident in reducing losses, the cost of risk control – in the form of return foregone- can seem excessive. In good years in the market, risk-conscious investors must content themselves with the knowledge that they benefited from its presence in the portfolio, even though it wasn’t needed. They’re like the prudent homeowners who carry insurance and feel good about having protection in place… even there’s no fire.

Controlling the risk in your portfolio is a very important and worthwhile pursuit. The fruits, however, come only in the form of losses that don’t happen. Such what-if calculations are difficult in placid times.”

The subject of risk was extremely counterintuitive – but the insurance analogy hit home. You hate paying insurance premiums ( life, health etc). You know however that if the black swan event in your life were to happen (death or debilitating illness)  -that’s when the value of insurance really come to the fore. You obviously don’t want such events to happen( who wants to die?) – but you know that eventually it may. Similarly with the markets – you know there will eventually be bad years and you don’t want to wiped out by blind risk taking or inappropriate risk mitigation.

In my case- the risks weren’t investment risks but other life risks. I didn’t realise the importance of cash allocation till I needed cash for an emergency. Not planning an emergency fund- hit me hard and I had to sell my stocks to meet these emergencies. I’ve written about this subject in more detail here

Reasonable Expectations

The other major learning from this book was having “Reasonable Expectations”. What was interesting was this did not just mean being reasonable on the upside but also on the downside.

See this extract from the book. [Emphasis supplied by me]

Everyone wants to know how to make the correct judgments that can lead to investment success and lately people have been asking me, “How can you be sure you’re investing at the bottom rather than too soon?” Finding the bottom is one of the thing about which our expectations have to be reasonable. My answer is simple: “You Can’t”

Reading this was such a liberating moment for me. If the demi-gods of investing can’t predict the bottom – why should mere mortals like me worry.

Another excerpt that re-inforces this belief.

“Our disinterest in market timing means – above all else – that if we find something attractive, we never say, “Its cheap today, but we think it’ll be cheaper in six months, so we’ll wait” Its just not realistic to expect to be able to buy at the bottom””

Adding Value

This is an interesting chapter towards the end of the book where Marks discusses what does it take for an investor to add value.

He speaks about two contrasting investors – Aggressive Investors and Defensive Investor and tries to distinguish between how these styles add values.

The matrix below will give you a better insight

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Summary

There are books on investing and there is this book. I would rank this at the very top in the list of investment classics. You must read and reread this book every 6 months to ensure that you imbibe Howard’s philosophy into your style. This book will speak to different people differently depending on where they are in their investment journey and hence reading this again will you more insights as you grow as an investor yourself.

Get your own copy of “The Most Important Thing” by Howard Marks today.

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Cash is the Oxygen of Financial Independence

silver and gold coins

The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily

Charlie Munger

When I look back at my investing career, with everything life has thrown at me, I’ve realized that one of the key reason for my investing performance so far has been something so basic – keep extra cash in the bank.

Wanted to buy a new car and had to make the downpayment- No extra cash, sell some stock to fund the downpayment.

Annual vacation  – again sell some stock to generate some cash.

Everytime I promised myself – that I would replenish those stocks asap – reality check – never did so.

I was always fully invested. So whenever there was a need for extra cash, I was always dipping back into my portfolio and unnecessary tinkering with it. I never built up enough cash resources or an emergency fund.

I’ve been through 3 important significant downturns in the equity markets. Dotcom crash – I was to young with very little investible surplus, however subsequent couple of events, both times I was lucky enough and gutsy enough to invest in the markets. I had learnt my lessons well from the great books – be greedy when every one is fearful

While many of stocks in my portfolio turned multibaggers, my inability to hold on to them just because I needed cash – has been the biggest downfall in my investing career so far.

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The Psychology of Money

I recently read this fantastic book by Morgan Housel – “The Psychology of money”. Throughout the book, there was one recurring theme that resounded with me very deeply. That was about ensuring that we don’t interrupt the compounding engine unnecessary and plan for things to go wrong.

I want to read and re-read these few paragraphs from this book -till they create an indelible impression on my mind.

More than I want big returns, I want to be financially unbreakable. And If I’m unbreakable I actually think I’ll get the biggest returns, because I’ll be able to stick around long enough for compounding to work wonders.

No one wants to hold cash during a bull market. They want to own assets that go up a lot. You look and feel conservative holding cash during a bull market, because you become acutely aware of how much return you’re giving up by not owning the good stuff. Say cash earns 1% and stock return 10% a year. That 9% gap will gnaw at you every day.

But if that cash prevents you from having to sell your stocks during a bear market, the actual return you earned on that cash is not 1% a year – it could be many multiples of that, because preventing one desperate , ill-timed stock sale can do more for your lifetime returns than picking dozens of bi0time winners.

Compounding doesn’t rely on earning big returns. Merely good returns sustained uninterrupted for the longest period of time- especially in times of chaos and havoc – will always win.

The Psychology of Money – Morgan Housel

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Second Order Thinking

This is classic – System 2 thinking or Second Order Thinking as Daniel Kahneman noted in his seminal book – “Thinking Fast and Slow”

I have been a victim of First order thinking while not wanting to hold cash – as it gave such minimal returns.

I did not get to the Second order thinking on the lines that holding cash enabled me to meet all of life’s other small and large emergencies and left my equity portfolio untouched and compounding at a healthy pace.

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Lessons learnt

I’m in the process of building a large enough fund, something that I still feel uncomfortable about. Seeing that level of cash sitting idle in my savings bank account still makes me so uneasy. Hence I am writing this post as a reminder as to why I am doing this.

Morgan himself keeps close to 20% of his assets in cash outside the value of his home. He himself admitted that it’s a very high threshold and he doesn’t recommend it to all. I don’t think I may get to 20% ever as I don’t think I’m mentally wired that way although it was be interesting to get close to that and see how it feels.

The follow excerpt from the book tells you Morgan’s reasons for doing so

“We do it because cash is the oxygen of independence, and- more importantly  – we never want to be forced to sell the stocks we own. We want the probability of facing a huge expense and needing to liquidate stocks to cover it to be as close to zero as possible. Perhaps we just have a lower risk tolerance than others.”

The Psychology of Money – Morgan Housel

So what percentage of your assets are in cash? Would love to hear about it in the comments.

Signing off now to add some more fund to the cash account.

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7 Baby Steps by Dave Ramsey: Can it help you build wealth and financial discipline

Dave Ramsey was one of the first “personal finance” mentors I came across. I was introduced to him when I first heard one of his interviews on the Success Magazine CD. The 7 baby steps prescribed by Dave was one of the game changers in  my personal financial planning and set me on the path to financial discipline.

Have you had a feeling that you see a huge some of money hitting your account on the first day of month – but midway through the month you have just no clue where all of that money went. I went through something similar. Reckless spending, racking up credit card bills and before I knew I was scampering at the end of the month for some bridge finance to ensure I didn’t miss my home loan emi before the next paycheck got credited.

It was a vicious cycle I was trapped in for a long time. The credit card balances and friendly loans started piling up. All of this – while I still had a decent job with a more than decent paycheck.

Zero Base Budgeting

The first lesson I learnt was called zero based budgeting – figuring out where every single rupee you earned was supposed to go. This one simple exercise makes you super purposeful and allocating the end of use of each and every rupee of your paycheck beforehand – gave you extremely great insight on how you were spending your money.

Dave Ramsey’s 7 Baby Steps

Coupled with this lesson in budgeting – I came across these 7 baby steps from Dave Ramsey. The most fun ( in hindsight I can call it fun) from me was the second step – the debt snowball method. Just this one step went a very long way in putting my finances back on track.  So here are the 7 steps for your benefit

Baby Step 1: Save $1000 for your starter emergency fund (Read INR 50,000 for desi folks)

Baby Step 2: Pay off all your debt (except) your house using the Debt Snowball method

Baby Step 3: Save 3-6 months of expenses in a full funded Emergency Fund

Baby Step 4: Invest 15% of your Household income for retirement                              

Baby Step 5: Save for your children’s college fund

Baby Step 6: Pay off your home loan early

Baby Step 7: Build wealth and Give

Dave Ramsey’s 7 Baby Steps

Debt Snowball Method

Most of the steps above are simple and self explanatory except perhaps – Step 2 – which warrants some more detail. Dave calls this the Debt Snowball Method. You are required to list all of your debts (except the house) from smallest to largest. The sorting is not according to interest rate/ cost of debt – but rather the size of debt. This is a very important distinction as this is not a mathematical exercise but a behavioral one.

Pay minimum payments on all your debt and whatever savings are left over are used to attack the smallest debt on your list. Once you’ve closed that debt, use the additional savings and start attacking the next debt in your list working your way up from smallest to largest. As you work on paying off your smaller debts first, you will have some quick wins which are extremely important from a psychological perspective to keep your motivated. This is actually where the fun begins and it becomes more like a game and you get charged up everytime you are able to make a significant dent.

For most Indians, these debts would generally include, credit card debts, personal loans, car loans and other friendly loans. For the most part – we are lucky not to be saddled with huge educational loans. This would atleast hold good for a vast majority of Indians.

Once you are free from the shackles of these debts- you can move ahead with vigour on your investment and home loan repayment goals.

Being Debt Free ofcouse is the end game and the sooner you get there, the sooner you can breathe the fresh air of financial freedom

Conclusion

Look at where you are today on the ladder of your financial journey. Start with Zero base budgeting and get started with your emergency fund.  Let me know what you think about Dave’s Baby Step plan in the comments.

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Hygge: Happiness, Danish Style!

As I grow older, I am more interested in improving the happiness quotient in my life. I am constantly on the look out books, articles and podcasts on how to lead a more happier and peaceful life. It’s probably natural for life priorities to mature over time. Happiness and peace have become a key priority for me.

In this quest, one of the books that caught my attention was – The Little Book of Hygge- The Danish way to Living Well by Meik Wiking. I have always been a fan of vicarious learning. If people have figured something out- there is no shame in following in the footsteps on the wise women and men. Life is too short to make all your own mistakes.

Denmark is one of the happiest countries in the world. So when a Danish author gives your tips on living well -you listen very closely. I was also very intrigued by Meik’s background. He is the CEO of the Happiness Research Institute based in Denmark. Yup- you read that right. There is actually an organization whose key purpose is to study happiness. I was already sold on the book before I even read it.

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